This marks a critical time to review what’s happening locally and what we can expect to see moving forward. It certainly has been an eventful period with all of us now facing increased uncertainty, particularly when it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, making investment decisions, and for insurers pricing risk. 

Without stating the obvious, our economic ability to manage a fuel crisis, the consequences of higher interest rates and inflation may all contribute to further uncertainty. It is that backdrop that makes many businesses, families, and individuals take a more cautious approach - pausing plans, moderating spending, and reassessing investment decisions.

We haven’t seen the property market move a great deal recently, so expectations for house price growth in the coming months or for the rest of this year have been pushed out, leaving many in a “wait-and-see” position.

At the same time, recent weather-related events have impacted certain parts of the country and although these events have yet to translate into large-scale insured losses that would materially shift premium levels. 

For businesses (like the property segment), confidence appears more cautious now, with many adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach as they look for signs of easing energy pressures and geopolitical tensions.

The upcoming general election on Saturday, 7 November 2026, also introduces an additional layer of uncertainty, particularly as the outcome could be close.

The current Official Cash Rate sits at 2.25% (as of Wednesday, 8 April 2026), with the next announcement due Wednesday, 27 May 2026.

The Reserve Bank has left the official cash rate (OCR) on hold, perhaps ‘looking through’ the current oil crisis and hoping for a quick resolution.

However, with inflation now expected to head higher, they may have little choice but to increase interest rates. The issue is then conflicted with a lack of demand in the economy and how they balance these issues.

The New Zealand Quarter 1 Annual Inflation Rate

The inflation rate remains at 3.1 % Stats NZ , which continues to sit outside the Reserve Bank’s target range of 1%-3%.

The contributors to recent non-tradable inflation:

• Electricity is up 12.5%
• Local council rates up 8.8%.

General Insurance Premiums (not related to Life and/or Health-related insurance) remain stable to softening and not yet attracting inflationary pressures.

We are seeing premium rates flatten out and soften in certain sectors of the New Zealand economy. At the same time, recent weather-related events have impacted parts of the country, although these events have yet to translate into large-scale insured losses that would materially shift premium levels.

That said, if such events become more frequent and severe, and insurance claim costs rise accordingly, there is potential for this to place upward pressure on overall premium rates - so this is something to continue monitoring.

How aibGROUP Can Help You Navigate the Current Insurance Cycle

By speaking with one of our insurance advisers about your circumstances and assets, we can tailor solutions that support your insurance needs and protect what matters most.

• Our team will present all available options, such as adjusting excess levels and providing expert advice tailored to your needs. The value of professional guidance, strong insurer relationships, and personalised service has never been more important. Contacting us is easy, and we’re committed to acting as your advocate, building a close, trusted partnership.
• We proactively review your cover and recommend any necessary changes without delay. Our experienced claims team operates independently from insurers, ensuring you receive the full benefits of your policy when it matters most.
• For buildings and homes, we recommend obtaining a professional insurance valuation. This helps eliminate guesswork from online calculators or reliance on outdated inflation estimates. A qualified valuer also provides an added layer of protection if your declared value is ever challenged.

Other ways we can add value to your insurance journey include:

• Access to fast-track claims processing with select insurers, and close collaboration with insurance assessors for non-fast-track claims, ensuring they are handled efficiently and correctly. We keep you informed with regular updates throughout the process.
• Referrals to professional insurance valuers at discounted rates through our partnership with NZbrokers.
• Years of experience and understanding of the local market, which has consistently delivered positive outcomes for our clients over the years.
• A strong team culture focused on continuous development, ensuring we stay current and proactive in an ever-changing insurance landscape.
• Community support through sponsorship and volunteering, reflecting the values we share with many of our clients and helping to strengthen our local partnerships.

Additionally, like many of our clients, we support local non-profit community organisations through sponsorship and volunteering, continuing to build those partnerships and connections.

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